Why NBA Players Should Be Concerned About Declining TV Ratings

The NBA has long been a dominant force in sports entertainment, but recent trends in television ratings have raised concerns about its overall trajectory. While league executives and media partners may feel the immediate pressure to reverse declining viewership, NBA players should also be paying close attention. The drop in ratings has direct and indirect consequences that can impact player salaries, endorsement opportunities, and the league’s global influence.

The Trend of Declining NBA Ratings

Over the past several years, NBA TV ratings have been on a downward trajectory, affecting even marquee events like the NBA Finals and Christmas Day games—traditionally the league’s biggest television draws.

• NBA Finals Ratings Decline: The NBA Finals, once consistently drawing over 15-20 million viewers per game in the early 2000s, has seen a significant drop in viewership. The 2020 Finals (played in the bubble) recorded historic lows, and even though numbers have rebounded somewhat, they remain below peak levels. The 2023 Finals between the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat, for example, averaged 11.6 million viewers, making it one of the lowest-rated Finals in decades.
• Christmas Day Games Losing Viewership: The NBA’s Christmas Day slate has long been marketed as the league’s signature regular-season event, similar to the NFL’s Thanksgiving games. However, in recent years, ratings have declined sharply, with fewer fans tuning in despite big matchups. The 2023 Christmas Day games averaged 2.7 million viewers, a significant drop from previous years when games regularly averaged 4-5 million viewers.

These declines indicate a troubling trend: even the league’s most important games are struggling to capture mainstream attention. If the Finals and Christmas games can’t draw high ratings, it suggests that the casual audience—the key demographic for long-term growth—is losing interest.

The New Media Rights Deal and Its Implications

In an effort to revitalize viewership and revenue, the NBA has secured a new 11-year, $76 billion media rights deal with ESPN, NBC, and Amazon, set to begin in the 2025-26 season. This landmark agreement aims to expand the league’s reach by incorporating traditional broadcast networks and streaming platforms. Notably, TNT, a long-time NBA partner, will no longer broadcast games under this new deal.

While this massive revenue boost is a positive development, the league must address declining viewership trends to ensure the long-term success of this partnership. Players, in particular, should be mindful of how these changes could impact their careers and earnings.

When Could Players Start to Feel the Impact?

The financial benefits of the new media deal are substantial, but players might not experience immediate positive effects due to existing financial structures within the NBA. The league’s collective bargaining agreement (CBA) includes measures to prevent sudden salary cap spikes, such as the one in 2016 when an influx of TV revenue led to massive, unexpected salary increases.

Instead, the salary cap is designed to increase gradually, with a maximum annual rise of 10%. Therefore, while the new media deal will inject substantial funds into the league, players may not see a corresponding immediate increase in salaries.

Moreover, if viewership continues to decline, it could negatively impact future revenue projections, leading to more conservative salary cap growth in the later years of the deal. This means that if ratings don’t improve, players could begin to feel the financial impact by the 2025-26 season and beyond.

The Salary Cap and Player Earnings

One of the most significant reasons NBA players should care about TV ratings is the direct link between television revenue and the league’s salary cap. The NBA’s massive media rights deals provide billions of dollars in revenue, which is then distributed to teams and players. If viewership declines, future media deals may not be as lucrative, leading to a lower salary cap and ultimately smaller contracts for players.

For example, the 2016 salary cap spike, driven by an influx of TV money from a new rights deal, allowed players like Stephen Curry and LeBron James to sign record-breaking contracts. However, if ratings continue to decline, the league may struggle to secure similar deals in the future, leading to stagnant or reduced player salaries.

Fewer Endorsement and Sponsorship Opportunities

Beyond NBA contracts, players rely heavily on endorsements, shoe deals, and sponsorships for income. Companies invest in athletes based on their marketability, which is tied to their exposure and the league’s overall popularity. If NBA ratings fall, brands may be less inclined to sign big endorsement deals with players, choosing instead to invest in other sports or entertainment sectors that offer higher visibility.

Superstars like Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, and LeBron James built their personal brands in an era when NBA viewership was consistently high. With declining ratings, the next generation of stars may find it harder to reach the same level of marketability and financial success outside of their NBA contracts.

Potential Changes to the Game

If the NBA faces sustained ratings declines, the league may implement rule changes or scheduling adjustments to regain viewership. Some changes, such as shorter regular seasons, an expanded play-in tournament, or international expansion, could impact how players prepare and perform.

For example, there have been discussions about:

• Reducing the length of the regular season to combat load management issues and make games more competitive. While this might help ratings, it could also reduce the number of games in which players can earn statistics, set records, and justify higher salaries.
• Scheduling more primetime games to boost viewership, which could mean later tip-off times that disrupt players’ routines.

The Growth of Other Sports and Entertainment Options

The NBA is competing with more entertainment options than ever before. Streaming services, social media platforms, and rival sports leagues have all drawn attention away from traditional NBA broadcasts. Younger audiences are engaging more with short-form content rather than watching full games, which could alter how the league markets itself in the future.

If the NBA cannot maintain its standing as a top-tier entertainment product, it risks losing fans to emerging sports leagues (such as the NFL, MLS, international basketball competitions) and other entertainment platforms like esports. This could reduce the league’s bargaining power in future negotiations, ultimately affecting the players’ long-term financial stability.

Legacy and Influence of the League

Every player wants to be part of a thriving, culturally significant league. The NBA’s golden eras—from the Magic-Bird rivalry to the Michael Jordan dominance and the LeBron-Curry era—were defined by high engagement, legendary moments, and massive global influence. If ratings continue to decline, the league risks losing its grip as a premier global sports entity, diminishing the legacy of current and future stars.

A shrinking audience not only affects finances but also how players’ careers are remembered in the grand history of the game. Less exposure means fewer fans witnessing iconic performances, fewer opportunities for rivalries to take center stage, and ultimately, a weaker connection between fans and the league’s superstars.

What Can Players Do?

While players cannot single-handedly control TV ratings, they can play an active role in keeping the league engaging for fans by:

• Reducing load management and making regular-season games more competitive.
• Embracing storytelling through rivalries, personal branding, and media engagement.
• Supporting league initiatives like the In-Season Tournament and global expansion.
• Expanding their reach by engaging international audiences.

Final Thoughts

While the new $76 billion media deal offers financial stability, it does not guarantee future success if the NBA cannot reverse declining viewership trends. Players should recognize that the long-term health of the NBA affects their earnings, legacy, and ability to shape the game’s future.

If ratings do not improve, the financial impact could start to be felt by the 2025-26 season, making it crucial for both players and the league to take action now to safeguard the future of professional basketball.